Avocado markets in Europe remain largely defined by tight availability, as adverse weather in Spain and Morocco continues to restrict supply. In Germany and the Netherlands, volumes are only just sufficient to meet demand, with limited Spanish availability and delayed harvesting putting pressure on the market. Italy and Belgium are facing similar conditions, with firm prices and constrained imports shaping trade dynamics at both the wholesale and retail levels, and Spain is facing ongoing harvest disruptions in avocados due to persistent adverse weather.
In North America, the situation contrasts with Europe, as a strong and consistent supply from Mexico is ensuring market continuity. Favourable growing conditions have supported good fruit sizing and stable availability, allowing importers and retailers to plan promotional activity more confidently during peak demand periods.
© Viola van den Hoven-Katsman | FreshPlaza.com
Further south, South Africa is preparing for the upcoming season, with early harvesting expected to begin shortly. While localized hail damage has been reported in some regions, overall crop expectations remain positive, although dry conditions in the Southern Cape may influence fruit sizing.
At origin, Mexico continues to underpin the global avocado market through its dominant role in the U.S., where consumption remains strong. In South America, Peru is increasing volumes primarily through expanded planted area, reinforcing Europe as its main outlet. Colombia has closed the season with further growth, though cost pressures persist, while Chile continues to operate in a highly sensitive market environment where timing and supply management remain critical.
Germany: Tight supply limits availability
Avocados continue to gain popularity among private consumers, with sales volumes increasing steadily in recent years. At present, availability is only just sufficient, and the overall supply situation remains tight.
There is currently very limited availability from Spain in the third week of January. Hailstorms in several growing regions have resulted in a below-average harvest, while in the Comunidad Valenciana, the avocado season ended earlier than usual as a result. In Málaga, however, harvesting has been delayed due to unfavourable weather conditions.
Relief is expected from Kenya, where a good harvest with increasing volumes is forecast for the current year. Harvesting and exports by sea freight are imminent, meaning Kenyan avocados are likely to supplement supply on the German market in the near term.
At present, the market is mainly supplied by imports from Morocco and Israel. In line with the ongoing tight supply situation, there are currently fewer promotional campaigns in food retail compared with the previous two years.
The Netherlands: Supply tightens as prices rise
Persistent rainfall is disrupting avocado harvesting in Spain and Morocco. According to a Spanish exporter, the rain is continuing unabated, making orchard access difficult. As a result, supply is limited, while retail demand is increasing, particularly for organic avocados.
At the wholesale level, sales are fluctuating sharply from day to day, with no consistent pattern. Elevated prices have made wholesale buyers more cautious. Prices have risen sharply: conventional avocados in size 18 are trading at around €17, while sizes 12–16 are fetching several euros more. Organic avocados are approximately 20 per cent more expensive.
Italy: Tight supply keeps prices elevated
The avocado market is facing extremely high purchase prices, mainly due to adverse weather conditions and a sharp decline in supply from key producing regions. Consumer demand remains weak, and the usual seasonal increase in buying activity is currently absent.
"The current situation for avocados is extremely complex. For the Hass variety in particular, purchase prices are not dropping below €15. The main issue is the shortage of supply across all origins. The Moroccan season is under pressure due to poor weather, and exporters are taking advantage of the situation through limited competition. Spain is also experiencing a highly uncertain and fragmented season, again due to adverse weather. There are no real alternatives: Israel is shipping limited volumes, Colombia has restricted availability, and Mexico has not yet started sea freight shipments, which are still about a month away. At present, only air freight is available," reports a wholesaler in northern Italy. "Even when switching to Greenskins, prices remain high at between €11 and €12 for top quality, with Israel dominating this segment thanks to Pinkerton. The only way to reduce costs is to buy larger sizes, such as size 10. Despite these prices, consumption is sluggish. Over the past two weeks, the market has stabilised, and the typical buying surge has disappeared, leaving high prices and weak demand."
According to another wholesaler in northern Italy, avocado sales continue to increase overall. Prices currently range between €4 and €5 per kg, and can be higher depending on processing. "Most of the fruit comes from South America. There are also shipments from Sicily and Spain, but volumes are limited, partly due to recent adverse weather. Retailers are no longer accepting Israeli avocados for political reasons. Avocados from Mexico are currently considered the best quality." The most popular size on the wholesale market is size 14, with sizes generally ranging from 12 to 16. The wholesaler expects larger volumes from Spain and Morocco within the next 15 days, which could lead to a slight easing of prices.
Belgium: Bad weather affects avocado availability
"The avocado market is currently being affected by adverse weather conditions in both Spain and Morocco," says a Belgian trader. "This has reduced production and exports, leading to tight availability and firm prices. While a clear price decline was seen around this time last year, the combination of limited supply and steady demand is driving an upward trend this season. Weather conditions in Spain and Morocco remain uncertain, and continued rainfall could result in further delays."
"Colombia is temporarily benefiting from the tight global supply situation. The Chilean season is nearing its end, and with Morocco and Spain facing weather-related challenges, additional volumes from Colombia are currently supporting the market. However, this situation is expected to be short-lived. Colombia does not have sufficient volumes to supply the market on a sustained basis and is approaching its peak, which is creating some tension."
Spain: Weather delays avocado harvest, supply remains tight
Abundant rainfall and strong winds in Spain since late December have made it difficult to continue harvesting in the main avocado-growing areas. "Harvesting has been delayed by bad weather in Málaga, Spain's main producing region. We have had persistent rainfall for weeks, meaning harvesting has often been halted for several days at a time. The same applies to the Comunidad Valenciana, where harvesting was partially reduced due to hailstorms and poor fruit set in summer caused by heatwaves," says a Spanish grower and exporter.
As a result, the supply of Spanish avocados on the market remains limited and below current demand, keeping prices on an upward trend. "Demand for avocados is far exceeding available supply at the moment, and prices continue to rise," he adds. "However, due to these high prices, wholesale buyers have become somewhat more cautious in their purchasing decisions."
North America: Strong supply supports stable planning
Avocados from Mexico continue to dominate supply in North America. Favourable weather conditions have contributed to a strong crop, with good fruit sizes, and the U.S. market is expected to remain well supplied through the end of the season in June. In the current market, it is estimated that Mexico accounts for at least 96 per cent of total avocado volumes entering the U.S.
At the company level, one supplier reports an average year-on-year and week-on-week increase of 28 per cent in volumes. In addition, one industry association indicates that avocado imports are expected to reach a historic 280 million pounds in the month leading up to the event. The industry recently set a weekly record with imports of nearly 84 million pounds.
Demand remains steady and strong, particularly ahead of the Super Bowl season, traditionally the highest avocado consumption day in the U.S. Pricing conditions are expected to support stronger retail promotions compared with last year. Looking ahead, the stability of supply is expected to allow retailers to make longer-term plans without the need to factor in price increases.
South Africa: Early harvest ahead despite localized hail damage
The avocado industry is positive about the crop currently hanging in orchards, with the earliest fruit expected to be harvested in the coming month. Hail damage in parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo is not expected to have a major impact on the overall 2026 crop, which is estimated at 22 million 4 kg cartons. In the Southern Cape, dry conditions are prevailing and are likely to result in smaller fruit sizes.
Mexico: Strong position in the U.S. market
Mexico continues to dominate the U.S. avocado market, shaping the global balance of the sector. During the 2025 season, prices for Hass avocados have remained stable at around €0.97 per kg (20 pesos/kg, equivalent to roughly USD 1.15–1.20 or about €0.98–€1.02 per kg after conversion). There is good availability of large sizes, although demand is beginning to shift toward smaller calibres. However, rainfall, hail, and frost in Michoacán and the State of Mexico could reduce supply in 2026 and generate upward price pressure. The United States remains the main destination, with record consumption during peak demand periods.
Peru: Expanding supply with Europe as main outlet
The Peruvian Hass avocado season is progressing with a year-on-year increase in supply, driven more by the expansion of planted area than by higher yields. Europe continues to be the main market, with firm prices so far, although the risk of oversupply will increase from March–April, when coastal valleys enter the market more strongly. The bulk of shipments is concentrated in medium sizes (20–24). The United States is still not a relevant alternative due to Mexico's dominance. Proper planning of sales channels will be key to sustaining returns.
Colombia: Volume growth amid cost pressures
Colombia closed the last Hass avocado season with growth of approximately 10 per cent. By the end of the season, total volume could reach between 200,000 and 205,000 tons, while 2026 is expected to show similar levels, although with caution due to atypical rainfall that could affect flowering. Prices in Europe range between €12.50 and €13.50 per 4-kg carton, although rising labour costs and a weak dollar are putting pressure on profitability. The U.S. market remains unattractive due to strong Mexican competition and the upcoming increase in shipments from Peru. Europe continues to concentrate most commercial programs.
Chile: Volatile market conditions and scheduling risks
Chile operates in a context of high volatility in the avocado business, influenced by the strong concentration of South American supply, especially from Peru and Colombia. Europe remains the main destination due to its absorption capacity, but it is also the most sensitive to volume peaks and product condition issues. Prices react quickly to inventory accumulation, making tight scheduling and consistent quality essential. In the United States, Chile's role is complementary due to Mexican dominance. The main challenge lies in smoothing the supply curve to avoid abrupt market corrections.
Due to employee attendance at Fruit Logistica, there will be no Global Market next week (week 6)
Next topic: Onions (Week 7)
