The 2025–2026 citrus outlook for the United States points to largely stable orange volumes alongside a contraction in tangerine and mandarin production. Regional performance remains mixed, influencing overall availability and market expectations, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Statistics Board, and the United States Department of Agriculture.
Oranges
Total U.S. orange production for the 2025–2026 season is forecast at 2.40 million tons, up less than 1 per cent from the previous season's final utilisation. California remains the main supplier, with total output projected at 1.82 million tons, an increase of 1 per cent year on year. Within the state, Navel orange production is forecast at 1.52 million tons, broadly in line with last season, while Valencia output is expected to rise by 3 per cent to 300,000 tons, pointing to slightly higher late-season volumes.
Florida orange production continues on a downward trend. Total output is forecast at 541,000 tons, down 2 per cent from last season. Declines are reported across early, midseason, and Navel varieties, as well as Valencias, reflecting ongoing structural issues within the state's citrus sector. Texas remains a small producer but is expected to record growth, with production forecast at 38,000 tons, up 6 per cent year on year, according to official estimates.
© NASS
Tangerines and mandarins
The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.10 million tons for the 2025–2026 season, representing a 10 per cent decline compared with last season's final utilisation. California, which accounts for the majority of production, is projected at 1.08 million tons, also down 10 per cent year on year, accounting for most of the national decrease.
Florida tangerine and mandarin production is forecast at 19,000 tons, unchanged from the previous season. This level provides limited offset to the lower volumes expected from California.
According to data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Statistics Board, and the United States Department of Agriculture, the overall citrus outlook reflects stable orange availability at the national level, while reduced tangerine and mandarin volumes are expected to shape supply dynamics in the coming season.
Source: Mintec/Expana
