Although it is still early to conclude export performance in 2026, the outlook for Brazilian fruit shipments is pointing upward, supported by orchard recovery, seasonal supply cycles, and expected trade developments with the European Union.
For the 2025/26 season, estimates indicate further recovery in Brazilian apple orchards, which is expected to lead to higher apple exports and lower imports over the year. Papaya shipments are also forecast to remain stable, supported by continued demand from Europe.
Exports of melons and watermelons are expected to decline gradually from February as the off-season approaches in Chapada do Apodi, located in Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará. Volumes are projected to increase again in the second half of the year once production resumes. Mango and grape shipments are also expected to follow a typical seasonal pattern, declining in the first months of 2026 before rising again at the start of the second semester. Banana exports are forecast to begin increasing from the second quarter, particularly to Mercosur destinations.
The expected signing of the European Union Mercosur trade agreement on January 17 in Paraguay is set to influence Brazil's export position in Europe. According to the International Fresh Produce Association, the agreement includes a gradual reduction of import tariffs, which would affect competitiveness for Brazilian fruit exporters.
Brazilian fruit currently faces an average import duty of about 10 per cent when entering the EU, with rates varying by product. Duties are around 8.8 per cent for melons and up to 14 per cent for grapes. Competing suppliers from Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia already benefit from tariff exemptions or reductions under the EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences.
The reduction or removal of tariffs is expected to lower export prices. "The removal of tariffs is expected to lower the price of Brazilian products and enhance their competitiveness," said Luiz Roberto Barcelos, an IFPA board member.
The association also notes that Brazilian fruit exports mainly consist of tropical products that are not grown in Europe and are shipped primarily during the European off-season, limiting direct competition with domestic EU production.
Data processed by Datamar through its DataLiner platform shows that Brazil exported 64,267 TEUs of fruit to Europe in the first eleven months of 2025.
Grape import tariffs currently range from 8 per cent to 14 per cent. "Once import duties are reduced to zero for Brazilian exporters, we will be on a more level playing field with producers from South Africa, Chile, Peru, and the United States, which already do not pay this tax," said Guilherme Coelho, president of Abrafrutas. Other fruits, including watermelon and melon, are expected to see tariffs eliminated ten years after the agreement enters into force.
Source 1: HFBrasil & Comex Stat
Source 2: Globo Rural / DatamarNews
