Chile's Table Grape Fruit Committee released its second export forecast for the 2025-26 season, estimating a volume of 63.6 million 8.2 kg boxes. This represents a 6.4% decline compared to the previous year, with a minor upward revision of 0.5% from the initial forecast.
Ignacio Caballero, the Committee's Executive Director, states that this slight increase is driven by the growth of new varieties, which could account for up to 72% of total shipments. This percentage surpasses the 67% from 2024-25 and the 71% initially forecasted.
Caballero also highlighted that this update includes information from 67 companies, seven more than in the initial estimate, that collectively accounted for 86% of last season's exported volume.
The report confirms that the renewed varieties will surpass 45 million crates, a 5% increase, while traditional varieties will stay above 8 million, with widespread setbacks. Among the new varieties, Sweet Globe has the highest volume at 7,044,206 boxes, a 30.9% increase from the previous year and 17% above the initial projection.
Autumncrisp® also stands out, with 6,122,539 boxes, a 33.5% year-on-year increase and 19% more than the initial estimate.
Among the traditional varieties, Thompson Seedless is expected to experience the most significant decline, with a 20.2% drop from 2024-25 and a downward revision of 37.1% from the previous forecast. The sector expects around 9 million boxes of Red Globe, the traditional variety with the most significant volume, which is 4.8% below the first estimate.
Geographically, Coquimbo (-1%) and Valparaiso (0%) largely maintain their levels, whereas other production areas decline: Atacama experiences the most significant decrease (-17%), followed by O' Higgins (-9%) and the Metropolitan Region (-5%).
The departure calendar also indicates an advance between weeks 6 and 10, with volume peaks that are less pronounced than those seen last season.
Based on the previous cycle, forecasts suggest a 20% rise in shipments to Latin America. In contrast, exports to Asia and North America are expected to fall by 21% and 9%, respectively.
Caballero emphasized that the ongoing consolidation of new varieties remains a driving force in the sector, enabling higher-quality fruit to reach markets. However, he highlighted that effective logistics will be crucial, especially given the anticipated early supply and the expected volume decrease between weeks 14 and 17.
Source: frutasdechile.cl
