Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) fell 3.3% this week, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline. This ongoing downturn follows an earlier period of volatility triggered by higher US tariffs announced in April. The market reaction to the tariffs was delayed by one month, with rates beginning to climb in May and surging through the first week of June. However, this trend has since reversed, with rates falling consistently since mid-June, indicating that the tariff's initial market impact was not sustained.
Transpacific spot rates fell this week, with those on Shanghai–Los Angeles down 5% ($2,675/feu) and those on Shanghai–New York down 7% ($4,210/feu). With a temporary halt on higher US tariffs for Chinese products ending in mid-August, shipping lines are cutting back on services across the Pacific by cancelling more sailings. Since the big rush to ship cargo before the tariff increase is now over, Drewry expects spot rates on this trade lane to continue declining next week.
Drewry's Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to decline. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump's future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.
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