Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) fell 2.6% this week, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline. This ongoing downturn follows an earlier period of volatility triggered by higher US tariffs announced in April.
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The market reaction to the tariffs lagged by one month, with rates beginning to climb in May and surging through the first week of June. However, this trend has since reversed, with rates falling consistently since mid-June, indicating that the tariff's initial market impact was not sustained.
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Transpacific spot rates fell this week, with those on Shanghai–Los Angeles down 4% ($2,817/feu) and those on Shanghai–New York down 6% ($4,539/feu). However, both lanes remain above their levels from 10 weeks ago, when tariff concerns began driving up rates. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles are still 4% higher, while rates to New York are 24% higher than on 8 May. Drewry expects spot rates on this trade lane to continue to decline due to weak demand.
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Drewry's Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to decline. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump's future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.
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