FAS Warsaw forecasts Poland's total cherry production for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 at 115,000 metric tons (MT), including 80,000 MT of sour cherries and 35,000 MT of sweet cherries. This represents a 30% decline from the previous year and a 53% drop from the six-year average. Severe frosts in April and May 2025 damaged cherry orchards, especially early-fruiting varieties, delaying the harvest and reducing overall supply. Frosts occurred multiple times from March to late May, compounding the weather challenges that have limited Poland's cherry yields in recent years.
In MY 2024/25, according to the Polish Statistical Office, total cherry production stood at 161,200 MT—110,200 MT of sour cherries and 51,000 MT of sweet cherries. This marked a 32% decline from MY 2023/24. Sour cherry production dropped by nearly 35%, while sweet cherries fell by 26%.
Despite the production decline forecast for MY 2025/26, the cherry orchard area is expected to rise slightly by 0.3% to 34,500 hectares. This is primarily driven by new sour cherry plantings, often replacing old apple trees or outdated cherry varieties. Some farmers are also shifting from berry crops such as black and red currants—and more recently raspberries—to cherries, especially sour varieties. From 2020 to 2025, producers have increasingly modernized orchards to include more profitable varieties.
In contrast, MY 2024/25 saw a 1% decrease in total cherry orchard area. Over recent years, the overall cherry area in Poland has remained relatively stable. According to official data, the orchard area in 2025 is forecast at 25,000 hectares for sour cherries and 9,500 hectares for sweet cherries.
However, there are notable discrepancies in reported cherry orchard area, depending on the source. For example, in 2024, the Polish Statistical Office estimated 24,900 hectares of sour cherries, while the Agricultural Market Modernization Agency under the EU and the Ministry of Agriculture reported 18,058 hectares. The National Association of Cherry Producers supports the lower figure, suggesting that the Statistical Office may overestimate cherry acreage by including non-commercial production, such as home gardens, which sometimes contribute to market supply during peak harvest.
According to industry estimates, average yields for sour cherries range between 10 and 15 MT per hectare. These figures imply that the area reported by the Statistical Office may not align with actual commercial productivity, though differences in methodology—such as including or excluding home garden production—could explain the discrepancy. A more accurate estimate of the 2025 harvest will be available by late June.
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