The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 408 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) - standard reference, equivalent to 16.5 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 1.03 percent compared to the estimate of current crop MY 2022/23 (around 412.3 million boxes or 16.67 MMT), due to the incidence of greening, which has been affecting Brazil’s citrus belt. Meanwhile, the average fruit weight is expected to be 158 grams for MY 2023/24, as a result of unfavorable climate and diseases, with expectations of lower production and fruit quality. FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 is forecast at 1.05 MMT, a decrease of 1.64 percent vis-à-vis the estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.12 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by extremely high temperatures and the greening incidence. A significant share will keep supplying the U.S. market due to limited juice availability from Florida provoked by hurricane Ian.
The average fruit weight in the Brazilian citrus belt for MY 2023/24 is forecast to be 158 grams, as a result of unfavorable climate and disease impact, with expectations of lower production and fruit quality. Moreover, Post forecasts 258 fruits to fill a 40.8-Kg/90-pound box. Considering all orange varieties, Fundecitrus reports that it is estimated 255 fruits to make up a 40.8-kg box for MY 2022/23 in the citrus belt. For that amount, oranges weight is estimated at 160 grams, in contrast to the previous projection of 165 grams.
The graph above shows the North of citrus belt increasing in productivity in MY 2022/23 (BR MY 2023/24) compared to the previous figure in MY 2021/22 (BR MY 2022/23), from 868 90-pound boxes per hectare to 1,088, 25 percent higher. The number is similar to MY 2021/22 in Southwest, when it had 1,008 boxes per hectare. Productivity in the southwest region decreased 15 percent in MY 2022/23, with a total estimate of 852 boxes per hectare in MY 2023/2024.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov