On average, fourth quarter 2023 fresh-market vegetable prices are well below the relatively strong levels observed in 2022. This is a marked contrast from the first half of 2023 when fresh prices remained near the elevated levels experienced during the fall of 2022.
Though hot spells in California and tropical rains in Mexico temporarily reduced supplies in the fall quarter of 2023, ample domestic production and import supplies have returned a measure of stability to the unusually volatile markets of the past 18 months.
This fall, average prices for key fresh-market vegetables dropped as supplies of several crops (such as lettuce, broccoli, and cauliflower) benefitted from a combination of extended warm, dry weather in California, easing drought and input prices, and favorable growing weather. As a result, production shifted smoothly from growing areas used in the summer/early fall to growing areas used in the late fall/winter.
Though the aggregate supply of fresh vegetables was fairly stable in 2023, the October 2023 USDA, NASS commercial vegetable price index based on Free on Board (FOB) shipping-point prices dropped 46 percent from a year earlier (figure 2). Given monthly shipping-point prices from the vegetable price index observed through October, coupled with weekly USDA, AMS data available up to early December, fourth quarter aggregate fresh vegetable prices are expected to average at least one-third below a year earlier led by lower prices for iceberg lettuce, onions, potatoes, and tomatoes. Prices are expected to average above a year earlier for carrots and snap beans.
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Source: ers.usda.gov