The combination of low orange supply and strong demand, driven by high temperatures, has led to a surge in orange prices in both the fresh fruit and processing segments. This trend has resulted in record prices in the industry, with the current average reaching a historic high in real terms, based on the Cepea series that began in October 1994.
Despite an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are reportedly low, leading to a situation where fruit supply is falling short of demand. In November, pear oranges in the fresh fruit market are being traded at BRL 58.90 per box, marking a substantial increase of 45.9% compared to the same period last year (in real terms). This is the highest nominal price in the Cepea series and the fourth highest in real terms for the month of November, with the current average reaching levels not seen since March 2019.
Similarly, prices for pear oranges and late varieties supplied to the processing industry have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, representing a significant surge of 60.3% compared to November 2022 in real terms – also marking the highest level in the series.
The supply-demand dynamics are expected to keep the supply in Brazil lower than demand until the end of the crop. Additionally, the upcoming season may witness limited availability, especially if orange juice stocks fail to recover by the end of the 2023/24 crop. If the 2024/25 season experiences below-average crops, there is potential for a critical situation, with the possibility of further decreasing stocks if the crop does not meet expectations.