World peach and nectarine production has seen significant growth in the past decade, rising more than 20 percent from 19.6 million tons to 24.2 million in 2022/23. On the surface, this appears to be a growth industry; however, more countries have declined in production than grown since 2013/14, including declines in the European Union and the United States, both of which are considered to be among the top-five producers.
Turkey and Chile contributed to global growth, but the upward trend globally has been overwhelmingly due to expansion in China, with China gains more than offsetting the total combined losses from the rest of the world. However, steady global production gains have not contributed to growing trade because production in China is mostly consumed domestically. Global exports have risen 35 percent since 2013/14 but peaked in 2017/18 and have since leveled off at reduced levels.
China has been the world’s largest peach and nectarine producer dating back to at least 2001/02, when output stood at 4.6 million tons, edging out the European Union which produced 4.0 million. China’s output since then has nearly quadrupled to 17.0 million tons in 2022/23 and now accounts for 70 percent of world production. Acreage saw annual increases between 2008/09 and 2019/20, with most of the production occurring in central China. Slight annual declines since then have been partially triggered by poor economic returns, prompting growers to remove trees or transition to more profitable crops.
Global exports up but not due to China
As with production, world exports have experienced significant growth during the past decade, rising more than 30 percent and averaging more than $1 billion per year. However, the growth trend has leveled off recently as export volume slipped and then plateaued during the past 5 years. Though China dominates global supplies, increased output has not translated into significantly greater exports, but has instead boosted domestic consumption.
China’s shipments of fresh peaches and nectarines during the past two years were below the 10-year average of 73,000 tons, and canned peaches have remained nearly flat. In addition, the European Union and the United States – leading exporters – have experienced significant reductions following shrinking production. Export growth has instead been greatly driven by output gains in Turkey and Chile, helping to lift global exports to a record 964,000 tons in 2017/18 and sustaining exports between 820,000 and 920,000 tons since then.
Source: fas.usda.gov