Much is currently changing on the avocado supply side, says Annabel Könst, who buys avocadoes for the Dutch company, Nature’s Pride. "The 2022-2023 winter season looks different from last winter. The different origins all have lower supply. That will become very noticeable in the coming weeks and months."
Situation per country of origin
"Looking at each country of origin, Chile, for instance, has less supply which is falling fast. Most of its avocados will be off the market by late January, two months earlier than last year. There's less volume available and local market competition, which pays better, is much less risky," Annabel begins.
"Spain, too, has less supply. Last year, they went on for too long. That's affecting this season's supply. Growers know they're one of the few on the market, and there's plenty of competition for this fruit. So, it's expensive. Israel also has less supply. Last year was an on-year, so this is an off-year. Again, competition and prices are high."
"Morocco, too, has less product than last season. That's mainly because it was too hot there last summer. Again, competition for these avocadoes will be high in the coming weeks. Colombia expected growth but should end up at the same quantities as last season. That's due to weather conditions in last year's second and third quarters, " says Annabel.
"There, too, competition for this fruit is high, driving up prices. Everyone's trying to get their hands on what little avocadoes there are. Looking a little further ahead, countries like Peru, South Africa, and Kenya should start harvesting a little earlier and deliver as early as March. That's also sorely needed to keep the supply flowing in."
Sales over Christmas and start of 2023
Avocado sales did not increase significantly over the festive season. "Avocados aren't a traditional Christmas item. Around the holidays, there's a healthy rise in consumption, but it's never been a product that shows immense growth because of Christmas. In contrast, in supermarkets across Europe, the start of a new year is always when shoppers focus on healthy eating. Avocados are very healthy, so it's a good product to boost. Retailers from almost all over Europe have promotions early in the year," Könst says.
Inflation
"Because of lower supplies, market prices are higher than before. But given their availability, avocado prices should have been even higher. Last year, European demand was much higher."
"That was thanks to the pandemic. The volume Europe received recently would've led to a shortage in the previous years. Here, inflation is having an impact," says Annabel.
"That means avocado consumption is stabilizing or even declining slightly in various countries. Over the next three months - due to the situation described earlier - imported avocados will be very pricey. There's no telling at this point how much that will affect supermarket prices."
"It, thus, remains crucial to keep sharing knowledge about avocadoes and inspiring people. Some aren't aware of its health benefits and high nutritional value," explains Annabel. "And they don't always know which recipes to use avocados or how to prepare them. In May and June, we're responding to this with the 'Avocados All Day' campaign."
"We'll have accessible, delicious recipes to inspire shoppers to use avocadoes at different times of the day. By combining promotions and in-store activities with online touchpoints, we'll increase the impact and measure the effects. So, by mid-year, we hope to have a better balance again, with more people enjoying avocados," concludes Annabel.
For more information:
Annabel Könst
Nature's Pride
Tel: +31 (0) 174 219 155
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.naturespride.nl
