The transition from a short, low-intensity La Niña to a more persistent El Niño is expected to alter rainfall and temperature patterns in Brazil in 2026, according to Hortifruti Brasil magazine, published by Cepea at Esalq/USP.
In 2025, relatively well-distributed rainfall and suitable temperatures supported productivity in several crops. Under the projected El Niño scenario, higher average temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns from winter onward are expected, with varying regional impacts. Researchers indicate that effects will differ depending on crop, location, and production system.
Rising temperatures may intensify phytosanitary pressure, accelerate crop cycles, and affect product quality, particularly under excess moisture. In areas with lower water availability, irrigation costs are expected to weigh more heavily on production budgets.
Profitability is also highlighted as a concern. Recent seasons showed that higher productivity does not necessarily translate into improved margins. In 2025, increased supply, quality losses, and cost pressures constrained returns across different supply chains.
In this context, researchers underline the importance of continuous climate monitoring, more precise management, staggered planting, and structured risk evaluation to maintain productivity, quality, and financial balance in 2026.
In parallel, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, through the Secretariat of Agricultural Defense, has launched an exclusive communication channel to strengthen phytosanitary surveillance. The email [email protected] is available for reporting suspected quarantine, exotic, or emerging pests.
The channel is open to rural producers, technical professionals, companies, institutions, and citizens. Submitted information will be assessed by the technical team, which may trigger field inspections, sample collection, and further procedures where necessary.
The Ministry states that the tool aims to support early detection and response to pests not yet present in the country or posing emerging risks. Reports should include a description of the occurrence, location, and date of observation, images if available, and contact details to support technical analysis.
The initiative forms part of Brazil's plant health strategy, focusing on surveillance, risk prevention, and alignment with international phytosanitary practices.
Source: Fruit Magazine / Abrafrutas
