The supply of fresh fruits and vegetables to U.S. consumers continues to depend on three pillars: domestically grown produce harvested by machines or migrant workers, and imported produce from lower-wage countries. The United States currently imports 60 percent of its fresh fruit and 35 percent of its fresh vegetables, driven by climatic limitations and lower labour costs in exporting countries. Mexico's farm wages remain far below U.S. levels, while countries such as Peru have expanded their role in supplying avocados, blueberries, and table grapes.
The administration has sent mixed messages regarding these labour sources. In June 2025, President Trump stated that aggressive immigration enforcement was removing long-time workers from farms and the hospitality sector. Following a brief discussion of easing agricultural enforcement, he later said, "We can't let our farmers not have anybody," and directed DHS, DOL, and USDA to coordinate on farm labour issues.
The Department of Labor released an Interim Final Rule on October 2, 2025, that restructures the Adverse Effect Wage Rate for H-2A workers. The AEWR historically matched USDA's Farm Labor Survey wage figures. After the USDA cancelled the FLS in August 2025, DOL shifted to the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey for wage setting. Because the OEWS surveys nonfarm employers, 2026 AEWRs will reflect wages of workers employed by entities such as labour contractors, pest-control firms, and warehouse operators. Two-thirds of workers in the major occupational categories used for AEWR calculations are employed outside agriculture.
The rule also introduces skill-based AEWRs: a Skill Level 1 wage for jobs requiring little experience, a Skill Level 2 wage for positions requiring at least three months of experience, and an adverse compensation adjustment for H-2A workers who receive employer-provided housing. DOL expects about 92 percent of H-2A jobs to be classified as Skill Level 1. The department projects program participation to exceed 500,000 positions by 2030.
Farmers may pay lower H-2A wages in 2026, ranging from US$8 to US$17 per hour instead of the US$15 to US$20 range in 2025. DOL expects total H-2A wages to fall from US$6.6 billion in 2025 to US$5 billion in 2026. Employers may also reduce wages for U.S. crop workers, including unauthorized workers, depending on state minimum wage rules. Some states, such as California, require payment of the state minimum wage, while others may allow wages close to the ACA Skill Level 1 rate.
The regulatory shift may expand the number of guestworkers rather than accelerate the adoption of mechanization. Worker morale, compliance concerns, and potential legal challenges to the rule remain key uncertainties as employers evaluate wage strategies for the 2026 season.
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For more information:
Center for Immigration Studies
Tel: +1 202 466 8185
www.cis.org
