The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has updated its 2025/2026 European apple and pear production forecast, first presented at Prognosfruit in August. The revised figures indicate moderate increases in both crops, reaching around 11 million tons for apples and just over 1.8 million tons for pears.
According to WAPA, the upward revision follows favourable late-summer weather conditions that improved fruit size and colouring for mid- and late-season varieties. Despite the adjustment, total production remains below full potential levels of 13 million tons for apples and more than 2 million tons for pears.
The updated estimate places EU apple production between 10.9 and 11 million tons, about 5% higher than the August forecast and ranking as the sixth-largest crop of the decade, still below the 2018 peak of 13.2 million tons. The EU pear crop is estimated slightly above 1.8 million tons, marking the third consecutive low harvest and the fourth lowest of the past ten years.
Following a difficult spring with frost, poor pollination, and drought, improved conditions in September led to higher yields in several member states. Poland's crop was revised upward by 400,000 tons, while Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France also reported smaller increases. For pears, production rose in Belgium (+25,000 tons), the Netherlands (+10,000 tons), and France (+10,000 tons), partially offset by a decline in Italy (-9,000 tons).
WAPA noted that the updates reflect standard seasonal adjustments as final harvest data becomes available. Philippe Binard, speaking on behalf of Prognosfruit, said: "While this year's crop is slightly higher than initially anticipated, the European apple and pear market remains well balanced. Production continues to be below full potential, stocks are clean, and new export openings are providing a positive outlook for the season."
Early sales were slowed by home garden production and cautious consumer demand, but trade is now improving, supported by domestic consumption and export activity. The European Commission's Market Observatory highlighted stable conditions with no carryover stocks or major import pressures at the start of the season.
Exports have increased by about 20% year-on-year, driven by reduced output in Turkey and stronger demand in the Middle East, India, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. However, exporters continue to face exchange rate volatility, logistics issues in the Red Sea, and some market access restrictions.
The sector continues to face challenges, including higher production costs, the need for better risk management tools, and evolving biosecurity threats. Encouraging consumption and maintaining competitiveness within the Common Agricultural Policy framework remain priorities for the industry.
The 2026 Prognosfruit conference will be held in Constance, Germany, from 5 to 7 August 2026.
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