The recent decision by the United States to reimpose a 17% antidumping duty on Mexican tomatoes landed like a cold shower across the sector. For decades, Mexico has been the backbone of fresh tomato supply to the US market — an efficient, year-round system that not only sustains rural employment but also feeds a deeply integrated North American food chain. Now, that connection feels fragile.
According to official numbers from Banxico, the Mexican tomato industry faced its worst August in five years. One month after the United States ended the Suspension Agreement and imposed a 17% anti-dumping tariff on fresh tomatoes, Mexican exports experienced a sharp decline.
Those who know the sector were not fully surprised. Trade tensions have surfaced periodically since the 1990s, and the 2019 Suspension Agreement was always more of a truce than a permanent solution. Still, the new tariffs introduce uncertainty at a time when growers already face higher input costs, labor shortages, and climatic stress.
Margins that were thin even in good years are now under real pressure. The US market remains essential — absorbing close to 70% of Mexican fresh tomato exports — but price volatility and compliance costs are eroding its attractiveness. The question for many growers is not only how to survive this cycle, but how to redefine their competitiveness.
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