The Board of Zespri Directors met today and approved the November forecast for the 2022/23 season, the second full forecast they have published this year.
The table below outlines November 2022 forecast OGR per tray and per hectare returns for each category compared to the previous August 2022 forecast.
*NB: Zespri RubyRed forecast per hectare return, in its first year as a commercial pool, has been influenced by a high proportion of
productive hectares returning low yields impacted by vine age. Across the age profile, 8 hectares with a vine age of >2 years returned an
average yield of 6,029 trays per hectare and a per hectare return of $122,882 (August forecast: $114,153). A further 51 hectares with a
vine age of < 2 years returned an average yield of 1,213 trays and a per hectare return of $24,710 (August forecast: $22,954).
"The latest OGR forecast reflects the ongoing challenges we’ve encountered this season, particularly with regard to fruit quality. The industry has continued to work hard to strengthen onshore quality
assessment processes, however the weekly rates of onshore fruit loss have trended above those considered in the August 2022 forecast and there is higher onshore fruit loss this season across the four largest pools," states Zespri Chairman Bruce Cameron.
"Offshore, market teams have continued to identify opportunities to lift returns, and we have seen positive movements on freight costs and foreign exchange. Offshore quality costs have however, continued to track higher than previously estimated, most notably across the Gold pools. All major markets have updated their estimates of the season results with projections of higher fruit loss and quality claims, with Europe, China and Japan seeing the largest cost impact."
"As a result, both conventional and Organic SunGold Kiwifruit per tray returns are now below the June 2022 OGR range guidance, while Green Kiwifruit is showing signs of being able to absorb additional quality impacts and maintain returns at the levels forecast in August 2022. Forecast average per hectare returns, outside of SunGold Kiwifruit, remain within the June 2022 range guidance.
"The total fruit and service payment, across all pools and excluding the loyalty premium, is forecast between $2,200 million and $2,225 million, once the revised market allocations are known following recent updates to expectations around onshore fruit loss."