The short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2024 remains characterized by uncertainties, notably the evolution of geopolitical crises and their implications on trade, prices and the overall economy, with continued pressure on farmers. Since the last short-term outlook (Autumn 2023), there have been some favorable but limited developments in input costs, with the prices of energy, fertilizers and animal feed declining albeit remaining significantly above pre-Covid levels. Producer prices for many commodities also remain above pre-Covid levels, despite downward trends, with some producer prices declining at a faster rate than input costs, hurting the profitability of certain farms (differentiated geographically, by size and by sector).
EU consumption of fresh apples falls as production declines
The 2023/24 EU usable production of apples is expected to decrease by 6.3% to 11.1 million t (3.6% below the 5-year average), driven by a lower harvest in the main EU producing countries (e.g. -12% year-on-year in DE, -10% in FR, -9% in PL), which is the result of an estimated reduction in the area harvested (-4% year-on-year), and unfavorable weather conditions which impacted negatively the yields and quality of the fruit.
Oranges 2023/24 production estimate declines further
Total EU orange production in 2023/24 is expected to be the lowest in the last ten years. It could fall by 5.4% year-on-year (to 5.6 million t), more than expected in the previous short-term outlook. This is due to the production decline in ES, the largest EU orange producing country, mainly due to climatic factors, such as aridity, impacting also quality. On the other hand, the production is expected to grow in IT. Overall, the drop in the EU production can be attributed to lower yields (14% below the 5-year average and 6.5% below the last marketing year). On the other hand, the EU cultivated area of oranges in 2023/24 is 2% above the 5-year average (+1.2% year-on-year). These changes are mainly attributable to increases in IT and EL.
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Source: agriculture.ec.europa.eu