Only early regions such as Andalusia, Murcia, Valencia and South Italy have reached a stage of vegetation which allows to make relatively weak forecasts.
Even though figures cannot be given for production potential, weather conditions and current conditions lead us to believe that there could be a slight decrease compared to 2015 and the 5 year average.
In the Southern zones, where estimations have been made, (South Italy - Basilicate, Campanie, Pouilles, Calabre), a 7% decrease compared to 2015 and a 6% decrease compared to the average has been noted, and -1% decrease compared to 2015 and +1% compared to the average.
In South Spain (Andalusia, Murcia, Valencia), early varieties were held back by frost. Peach, nectarine and paraguayo production is expected to be 12% below that of last year and 27% above the average. This is notably thanks to flat peach production doubling compared to the 2010/2014 average. There is a 9% decrease in pavies compared to 2015, and 17% decrease compared to the average.
Sicily is a particular case as part of it’s production is late (high altitude production with late flowering dates). This year the orchards in Sicily are in the same situation as regions further North, a stage which means the production of the trees can yet be evaluated.
Even though figures cannot yet be given, an overall decrease in peach and nectarine surfaces can be noted in Europe (North Italy, France and Greece). The only country to see acreage stabilise or increase slightly is Spain.
However, pavie orchards in Italy, Spain and Greece are increasing. Following a difficult decade, a decrease in pavie production all over Europe allowed for the market to re-balance and pavie peaches are re-attracting producers.
Growing conditions
This year, autumn and winter was overall mild with the average temperatures clearly above the norm. But as of January and February, frost hit many early production zones, which were at a sensitive stage of vegetation (flowering or small fruits). Vegetation was overall premature, despite the lack of winter cold upsetting vegetation for varieties that rely on the cold.
But as of mid-February, the average temperatures were closer, or below the norm, which strongly slowed down vegetation. This year, early flowering varieties show a significant advance in flowering compared to normal, (thus the problems from frost on these varieties). However, normal and late flowering varieties began slowly and saw flowering go on for 3 or even 4 weeks, compared to the normal 2 weeks. This meant that the situation was no longer premature and trees are still in flower today with small fruits. Thinning has been delayed in order to clearly see the potential charge.
The weather continues to be unstable with frost and hail over the last few days, and a risk of it continuing.
Season 2015
The 2015 season saw a relatively mild winter with no major weather conditions, meaning that harvest forecasts are close to the average. However, hail storms in the summer, notably in Catalonia, and heavy rain in Greece, reduced production.
The season began correctly in Andalusia, Murcia and South Italy with a good flow of produce. The market was then under pressure around mid-June when production began in less early zones. Spain was particularly marked by a saturated market at the start of June with flat peaches, followed by round peaches and nectarines and a brutal drop in prices.
Despite volume being below the norm, limited stock in cold rooms, excellent consumer conditions (heatwave all over Europe as of the start of July until 20th August), prices did not increase for produce from Spain and Italy.
Production was held back in Spain by many negative weather conditions and harvest ended up being almost 30% below the norm. The market was very difficult with bad weather conditions (unfavourable towards consumption and fruit quality), and the closed Russian market, an important destination for Greek peaches.
Despite the difficult context, prices for produce from France on the French market remained stable until the 20th August. The decrease in volume, both structural and circumstantial, and a “national preference” from consumers and distributors was favourable towards produce from France. As of the 20th August, the end of the season became more complicated as prices ended up plummeting.
Overall, in France, the season was relatively correct in terms of prices, with production volumes decreasing. In Spain, Italy and Greece results were very negative. Fierce competition between European markets saw prices decrease to levels rarely reached. Production was, however, very average in terms of volume, but the closing of the Russian market and difficulties with Ukraine created a tension and disorganisation of the market as soon as the season started. Market professionals had to urgently find alternatives, which undoubtedly upset the balance.