The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has released its 2025/26 hazelnut production forecast, estimating 520,000 tons. This contrasts with a 609,400-ton forecast from the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KiB), marking a 22% decrease from KiB's previous 2024/25 projection.
The TÜİK estimate has faced criticism from Turkish industry officials, who question the transparency of the institute's data collection and research methodology. Despite the production forecast differences, Turkish hazelnut prices have risen since the April frost impact along the Black Sea coast. Expana Benchmark Prices for 11/13mm Levant quality Turkish hazelnuts have increased by $235/100kg since early April, reaching $1,100/100kg.
Expana reported subzero temperatures in the Ordu region, northern-central Turkey, during April's second week. In Fatsa, Ordu, temperatures dropped to -3.9°C on April 11 and -3.7°C on April 12. Similar conditions likely impacted other significant areas like Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, and Samsun. Additionally, concerns arise from market participants regarding the continuation of below-average temperatures into May.
Source: Mintec/Expana