Fundecitrus and its cooperators have projected the 2025–26 orange harvest in Brazil's Citrus Belt, covering São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, at 314.6 million boxes. This marks a 36.2% rise from the 2024–25 harvest of 230.87 million boxes.
The anticipated increase in harvest is primarily due to more fruit per tree, attributed to favorable climate conditions for the second flowering, improved orchard management, and a higher count of productive trees.
The projected average productivity for 2025–26 stands at 869 boxes per hectare and 1.72 boxes per tree, indicating a recovery from the previous season's productivity of 687 boxes per hectare and 1.37 boxes per tree.
Production forecasts by variety are as follows: 49.48 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties, which is an increase of 31.49% from the previous season. The Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, and Alvorada varieties are expected to produce 19.86 million boxes, up by 27.31%. The Pera variety is projected at 90.51 million boxes, reflecting a 21.16% rise. The Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties are anticipated to reach 114.58 million boxes, marking an increase of 50.78%. Lastly, the Natal variety is forecasted at 40.17 million boxes, up by 49.05%.
The projected fruit drop rate for the 2025–26 harvest is 20%, a 2.2% increase from the previous season. This is linked to the heightened severity of citrus greening and a later harvest.
Fundecitrus has updated its tree inventory data, mapping the entire Citrus Belt. There are now 182.7 million productive trees over 362,000 hectares, reflecting an increase of 12.7 million trees (7.5%) and 18,000 hectares (5.2%) since the last census in 2022.
Source: Citrus Industry