The Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) has issued a cautionary note on potential impacts stemming from the Thai-Cambodian border closure, potentially affecting up to 60 billion baht (approximately USD 1.7 billion) in border export losses if the situation continues until year-end.
Director-General Arada Fuengthong reported that Thai-Cambodian border trade flourished in the first five months of 2025, reaching 80.72 billion baht (USD 2.3 billion), marking an 11.20% growth over the previous year. Thai exports surged to 63.07 billion baht (USD 1.8 billion), recording a 9% increase, while imports climbed to 17.64 billion baht (USD 488 million), up by 20%. The period saw Thailand maintain a trade surplus of 45.43 billion baht (USD 1.3 billion).
In May, trade value rose to 16.11 billion baht (USD 446 million), a 7% increase from May 2024, with exports at 12.85 billion baht (USD 356 million) and imports at 3.25 billion baht (USD 90 million), resulting in a trade surplus of 9.59 billion baht (USD 266 million).
However, Arada noted a projected June decline due to the border closure that started June 7. The closure has stymied cross-border flow for goods, people, and tourism.
Consultations reveal reduced business activity along the border, leading to shop closures on both sides. In response, the Commerce Ministry is considering alternatives such as reallocating trading spaces to government and private-sector venues.
Arada emphasized that vegetables and fruits are among the most affected sectors, though the seasonal end limits impact. Government collaborations aim at domestic distribution of these commodities, while seeking new transit paths and markets for consumer and industrial goods.
Regarding imports, alternatives are considered, particularly for cassava—a key import, mainly supplied from Laos, accounting for over 60% of Thailand's imports.
The closure, albeit disruptive to cross-border trade, is predicted to minimally affect total Thai-Cambodian trade as sea routes remain viable for exports. During the 2025 initial five months, overall exports stood at 145.53 billion baht (USD 4 billion), reflecting an 8.7% rise, with border exports contributing 63.07 billion baht (USD 1.8 billion).
If border conditions persist, the estimated decrease in border exports may reach 60 billion baht (USD 1.7 billion).
"If Thailand's border exports to Cambodia decline by more than 60 billion baht in the second half of the year, it will reduce the overall border trade with neighbouring countries, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, by approximately 1%," Arada noted.
The DFT maintains vigilant observation in response to border security measures, engaging with provincial commerce offices and customs checkpoints for consistent updates. Additionally, they participate in the special task force handling border conditions.
The ministry supports the clearance of restricted goods like vegetables and fruits, prompted by Cambodia's import limitations, and evaluates alternative transport dynamics to aid economic stabilization for affected citizens.
Source: The Nation