Despite challenges, such as U.S. tariffs, South Africa is positioning itself more strongly as a leading macadamia producer globally, as indicated by industry expert Alex Whyte, director of the Green Farms Nut Company. This positioning comes despite recent market volatility and price pressures. South Africa's macadamia nut industry remains on track to potentially double its production over the next decade. According to Whyte, the long-term outlook remains strong despite recent setbacks.
Whyte noted the impact of low prices between 2022 and 2024, which have slowed crop growth. Some farmers have removed orchards or reduced inputs, which has affected yield levels. While the industry might come in slightly under the forecast of 95,500 tons for 2025, projections still estimate production between 90,000 and 94,000 tons, with expectations for the crop to double over ten years.
According to the International Nut Council, South Africa ranks as the largest global producer of macadamia nuts, with projections reaching 89,200 tons for 2024 and 95,500 tons for 2025. In comparison, China is projected at 69,500 tons for 2024 and 74,500 tons for 2025; Australia at 53,950 tons for 2024 and 56,890 tons for 2025; Kenya at 44,000 tons for 2024 and 47,500 tons for 2025; and the USA at 15,000 tons for 2024 and 15,500 tons for 2025.
With 1,300 to 1,500 macadamia nut farmers, the average farm size in South Africa is around 50 hectares, mainly located in northeast Limpopo, eastern Mpumalanga, the coastal region of KwaZulu-Natal, and George in the Western Cape.
Export currently accounts for approximately 95% of South Africa's macadamia nut production. China's market captures about 50% of this production, with the U.S. taking 25%, Europe 15%, and the remaining distribution across other regions. While new U.S. tariffs have posed challenges, the expectation remains for continued imports due to insufficient U.S. production.
Whyte highlighted the industry as a young one in South Africa, with further potential for growth and innovation, from horticultural practices to processing improvements and market development. He notes consumer awareness remains low, but strides have been made in achieving a world-class processing standard. Various macadamia-based products and opportunities, such as macadamia oil and eco-wood, contribute to this evolving industry landscape.
Source: Caxton