Compared to 2024, the avocado outlook this year is very different. "The supply outlook for 2025 has been dynamic and noteworthy," says Deb Willmann, vice-president of sales for Index Fresh. Right now, avocado supply for the U.S. is coming from Mexico, Colombia, California, and the Dominican Republic though generally, regional growing condition challenges caused by drought or lack of precipitation are causing shortages of mid and large-sized fruit.
Mexico, a major avocado producer, recently reduced its annual supply estimates by eight percent, with the possibility of further reductions later this spring. The supply from Mexico is also lighter and the fruit is trending smaller.
At the same time, growing regions such as California have also adjusted their initial supply expectations and this follows an earlier start to the state's avocado season, which got underway in mid-January. "This early start was characterized by the availability of high-quality fruit, a positive development for both growers and consumers. Last year's California crop was ample in size and usually, the following crop is smaller because it's cyclical. So back-to-back healthy crops are unusual, but very welcome," says Willmann.
Willman says year-round availability, consistent quality, and program pricing from Colombia are attractive to U.S. retailers looking for more stable supply options.
Extended California season?
The early start might also suggest that the California season runs longer than usual, though that will largely depend on factors such as weather conditions, market demand, and the continued health of the crops.
Over in Colombia, it continues to gain traction as a key avocado supply region. "Year-round availability, consistent quality, and program pricing are attractive to U.S. retailers looking for more stable supply options," says Willmann. "Colombia's impressive growth and appealing flavor profile have helped the new market make inroads. We continue to build our Colombian supply network with new programs shipping across the U.S."
Chile, another region the company has sourced fruit from for some time now, has also seen modest growth in the U.S., as retailers look for diversification and stability from reliable partners. "Chilean fruit continues to meet demand for both export and U.S. markets," says Willmann.
In all, despite these reductions from key supply sources such as Mexico and California, the South American avocado industry overall has maintained a steady output and outlook for the 2025 season. "This stability in South American production and an early California season start has helped to partially offset the decreases from Mexico," says Willmann.
As for Index Fresh, it has experienced a noticeable uptick in its supply from Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Chile. "Our diversification of offshore supply sources and partnerships with California growers have helped the company balance the market for their customers despite the lighter supply from Mexico," says Willmann.
The South American avocado industry overall has maintained a steady output and outlook for the 2025 season.
What about promotions?
As for consumer demand for avocados, it is slightly up–conventional pounds up 2.1 percent over the last 52 weeks (Circana). This deviates from typical high growth patterns seen in recent years. "Retailers are exhibiting a cautious approach to avocado promotions and purchases due to supply uncertainty and price volatility. For these reasons there's a noticeable reluctance among retailers to commit to large-scale avocado promotions," says Willmann. "Once retailers regain confidence in the markets, promotional programming is likely to resume and consumers eager for deals will respond."
All of this is leaving pricing so far in 2025 significantly higher compared to previous periods–Mexican prices have doubled compared to the same time last year, thanks to factors such as reduced supply, weather conditions, and increased demand.
Looking ahead, the avocado industry continues to adapt to the supply-demand imbalances experienced in the first eight weeks of the year. "This adjustment is expected to lead to more stable pricing and availability in the coming weeks," says Willmann, adding that this month also marks the launch of its GEM avocado line which will be introduced with a new campaign and unique packaging. "The dynamic nature of the avocado market can leave the most experienced buyer frustrated at times. The avocado industry's fast pace and competitive environment requires a global sourcing team with market intel and a diverse supply network."
In all, while Index Fresh sources fruit from seven countries, it is also exploring developing market opportunities in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and New Zealand.
For more information:
Deb Willmann
Index Fresh
Tel: +1 (909) 877-1577 ext. 1229
[email protected]
https://indexfresh.com/