The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.75 million metric tons (MMT), a slight decrease of 1.1 percent vis-à-vis the current season, with the resumption of the biennial crop cycle and consequently, a lower fruit load per tree. Meanwhile, orange weight at harvest is projected to increase 3.71 percent in relation previous crop, due to heavy rains throughout the citrus belt since October 2022. FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.125 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of nine percent from the estimated orange juice production for MY 2021/22, which was revised upward to 1.135 MMT. A larger share will supply the U.S. market to compensate Florida's juice production, which was damaged significantly by hurricane Ian.
In February 2022, the Sao Paulo State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA) released its first survey for the 2022/23 orange crop (equivalent to US MY 2021/22), forecasting 303.21 MBx (12.37 MMT), an increase of two percent vis-à-vis the previous crop (296.11 MBx or 12.08 MMT). Figures include production from both commercial and non-commercial areas and are based on data collected in February 2021. Note that IEA considers the entire state of Sao Paulo and all varieties of oranges.
At the same time, Post estimates follow the citrus industry’s methodology, which takes into account the four major citrus varieties for juice processing and includes the commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo plus the western part of Minas Gerais. IEA reports that the orange tree inventory in Sao Paulo is estimated at 171.5 million trees (153.8 million bearing trees and 17.7 million non-bearing trees).