Not long before the start of the 2012-2013 campaign, data on production capacity are still unclear. The Ministry, the Council and Agricultural associations do not seem to realise the importance it can have for the development of the campaign to have access to information about every variety's production capacity.
Many sources say that the decrease in production is quite high, around 30%, which suggests more a desire for prominence from Agricultural associations than a serious and rigorous approach. The Council of Agriculture remains ineffective in tackling this situation.
Flowering in spring already foreshadowed a good clemenules harvest, but certain circumstances had an impact on the fruit.
These are the conclusions:
The plots which have been properly treated against aphid and red spider pests and adequately pruned present an increase in production of 5 to 10%.
For around 15% of the plots which were not treated on time, especially against aphid pests, which had a late harvest, or were affected by the low temperatures in January, production falls will be important, possibly as high as 70 to 80%.
A percentage of plots, from 20 to 25%, have gradually stopped treating their crops due to economic reasons. Those are plots where fruit sizes can be small, affecting the quality, and their production can suffer falls of 10 to 15%.
For around 15% of the plots which were not treated on time, especially against aphid pests, which had a late harvest, or were affected by the low temperatures in January, production falls will be important, possibly as high as 70 to 80%.
A percentage of plots, from 20 to 25%, have gradually stopped treating their crops due to economic reasons. Those are plots where fruit sizes can be small, affecting the quality, and their production can suffer falls of 10 to 15%.
The number of abandoned hectares compared to last year has surprisingly been lower than expected, and it quite possibly did not rise higher than 4 or 5%, which entails a 17% to 20% abandon rate.
Lastly, in around 6% of the plots owners have merely maintained the trees in hopes of better years, which is to say, trees have only been watered and their production is almost non-existent.
Which were the areas with good production, the ones affected by untimely treatments, the ones harvested late or not harvested at all? The knowledge of these data is important to be able to estimate production capacity.
In light of the above we can affirm, with due caution, that the decline in production levels for the province of Castellon oscillates between 17 and 18%.
But there is a percentage of the production estimated at 20 to 25% which is lower in quality due to reduced sizes, which in most cases will bring problems for their export. If by the end of October droughts continue we may witness a record-breaking harvest reduction, and in case the rain comes and provides a minimum of 60 to 70 litres per square metre during September or beginning of October, production falls will be lower than predicted.
Meanwhile, considering the recession we are in, and pending to see if rains will come, it is important to assess the type of crop and the treatments that have been carried out, because unlike other years, this will have a great impact on the final figures, with or without rain.