On June 12, the Almond Board of California (ABC) released the May edition of its position report, providing an update on supply and demand trends through the 2024/25 crop year.
Before the report's release, market participants surveyed by Expana had estimated average shipments of 112,500 tons, with expectations ranging between 107,500 and 115,000 tons. The report confirmed that U.S. almond sellers shipped a total of 106,000 tons in May 2025, which is 6% below the total shipped in May 2024. So far this marketing year, reported shipments have fallen within Expana's pre-report survey range in five out of ten months.
In April, total shipments reached 120,500 tons. Of this, 25,500 tons were shipped domestically, a decline of 22.3% year-over-year, while 80,500 tons were exported, showing a marginal increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year.
For the crop year to date, spanning August through May, total shipments amount to 1,131,500 tons, which is 1.9% below last year's figure of 1,153,000 tons. Export shipments remain roughly equal to last year's pace, but domestic shipments lag by 21,500 tons. Domestic shipments also fall short of the prior three-year average (from the 2021/22 to 2023/24 marketing years) and are below the ABC's preseason forecast. Exports have contributed more heavily than usual to overall demand, accounting for 75% of total shipments this season, compared to 73% in the previous year and 72% on average over the past three years.
Top international destinations for U.S. almonds in April included India, with 17,700 tons shipped, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 8,000 tons, Spain with 6,700 tons, Italy with 4,900 tons, and Japan with 4,300 tons. When comparing year-to-date performance with last year for key regions, the European market remains on pace, India is 3% lower, and China/Hong Kong is down by 51%. In contrast, the Southeast Asia and Middle East regions have shown growth of 31% and 12%, respectively.
Southeast Asia and the Middle East regions have shown growth of 31% and 12%, respectively.
New sales for May were reported at 44,500 tons, reflecting a 34% decline year-over-year and a 54% drop month-over-month. Of these, domestic new sales accounted for 5,600 tons, down 62% compared to last year and 78% from the previous month. New export sales were 38,900 tons, down 26% year-over-year and 45% month-over-month.
On the supply side, 1,400 tons of new receipts were added in May, bringing the year-to-date total to 1,356,000 tons. Very few additional receipts are expected for the remainder of the marketing year. By comparison, June and July 2024 accounted for just 3,200 tons of new receipts, or about 0.2% of the final total. The USDA's Subjective Forecast, released in May, estimated the final 2024 almond crop at 1,365,000 tons.
Source: Mintec/Expana