Florida's citrus outlook continues to improve as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June 1 forecast, projecting a total of 12.0 million boxes of oranges for the 2024–2025 season. This includes 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges—such as early, mid-season, and Navel varieties—and 7.40 million boxes of Valencia oranges, which is an increase of 350,000 boxes from the previous forecast. The upward revision marks continued recovery for the state's citrus sector following severe setbacks from hurricanes and citrus greening.
The forecast for grapefruit production remains unchanged at 1.30 million boxes, comprised of 1.16 million boxes of red grapefruit and 140,000 boxes of white grapefruit. Similarly, tangerine and tangelo production is expected to total 400,000 boxes, a figure that also remains unchanged from the May forecast. This represents an 11% decrease compared to the final tally of 450,000 boxes last season.
The June forecast follows a May projection that estimated 11.63 million boxes of oranges. The new figures provide a boost of optimism to an industry that began the season under difficult conditions, following Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the fall, which led analysts to initially predict just 11.5 million boxes of oranges, 1.1 million boxes of grapefruit, and 350,000 boxes of tangerines and tangelos.
Industry leaders welcomed the June update. Matt Joyner, Executive Vice President and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, praised the improved forecast, stating, "The USDA's June citrus crop forecast of 12 million boxes marks continued improvement in two consecutive months, a step in the right direction toward a brighter future for Florida's citrus industry in the years to come." He noted that growers continue to persevere in the face of long-standing challenges, including the devastating effects of citrus greening and repeated hurricane damage.
The reliability of the USDA's June 1 all-orange forecast is supported by historical accuracy data. The Root Mean Square Error—a statistical measure of forecast deviation—is 1.1% including seasons affected by hurricanes, and 0.8% when excluding them. Over the past 20 years, the difference between June forecasts and final estimates has averaged 0.89 million boxes, or 0.68 million excluding abnormal seasons.
In further support of Florida's citrus growers, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee announced this week that funding for an Emergency Citrus Disease Research and Extension Program will be included in the Farm Bill. This program is intended to develop solutions for the diseases that continue to hinder recovery and long-term stability in the citrus industry.
Despite these encouraging signs, Florida's citrus production remains near historic lows, though the latest improvements offer a measure of hope for gradual recovery.
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For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 (202) 720-2791
Email: [email protected]
www.usda.gov
Source 2: Florida Politics