The Australian almond crop for the 2025–26 season is projected to be 10–20% below the industry's initial expectations, according to the Almond Board of Australia. Reports from processors indicate that hot, dry growing conditions combined with post-bloom frosts in September have adversely affected yields across key production regions.
For the first time in many years, the harvest was completed before Easter. However, the high-value Nonpareil variety—representing nearly half of all industry plantings—has shown disappointing kernel weights during early processing. The lower kernel moisture, attributed to excessive heat during the season, is being cited as a significant factor behind the drop in weight.
Although the final crop size will be confirmed in September or October after hulling and shelling are completed, early results have already signaled a shortfall. The industry's yield timeline, which estimates production based on orchard age, had suggested a potential crop of up to 172,000 tons. This was later revised to 155,531 tons in a pre-season update, but even that target is now unlikely to be met.
Despite the reduced outlook, Australian almond marketers are seeing strong demand. Trade uncertainties, including tariffs on almonds in China and potentially in other export markets, have led new buyers to consider Australia as an alternative supply source.
Since the season opened on March 1, almond prices have climbed significantly. When combined with the current weakness of the Australian dollar, growers are expecting some of the best returns seen in the past decade.
For more information:
Australian Almonds
Tel: +61 (0) 8 8584 7053
www.almondboard.org.au