Large regions in northern, southern, and central-western Africa, along with northern Madagascar, face severe drought due to prolonged low rainfall and elevated temperatures, according to the Copernicus Global Drought Observatory by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC).
The drought impacts the environment, economies, and societies, threatening food security, agriculture, and water resources. Recent precipitation improvements have not alleviated critical water levels. Major river basins, including the Zambezi in central Africa, experience reduced flows, leading to severe ecological and economic consequences. This trend is expected to persist.
Central, north-west, and north-east Africa are anticipated to face reduced river flows in the coming months. Prolonged dry conditions and expected heat waves may worsen the situation, directly impacting agriculture, ecosystems, and hydropower. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for 24 months up to March 2025 indicates deviations from average precipitation.
The drought significantly affects agriculture, with regions experiencing below-average production and increased food insecurity. The Zambezi basin and Madagascar are heavily impacted, with struggling vegetation. Morocco and Algeria face particular challenges, with the JRC MARS Bulletin of March 2025 reporting crop damage and yield forecasts below average. Some Algerian regions saw recovery due to February rainfall.
East Africa faces delayed and below-average Belg rains, affecting cereal crop planting. The regional outlook shows persistent or worsening drought conditions, with below-average rains forecast in East Africa from March to May. Higher temperatures are expected continent-wide, with northern Africa seeing wetter conditions, while eastern and western Africa remain drier. Effective drought monitoring and water management are crucial.
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