The 2024-2025 Florida all-orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 11.5 million boxes, down 500,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 36 percent less than last season's final production. The forecast consists of 4.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to "average", "minimum", and "maximum" refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges 4.50 million boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is reduced from 500,000 boxes to 4.50 million boxes. Size and drop components were finalized last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 28-29, 2025, showed 95 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 100,000 boxes.
Valencia oranges 7.00 million boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the January forecast at 7.00 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
Reliability
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 Florida production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 Florida all-orange production forecast is 6.7 percent. If you exclude the four abnormal production seasons (four hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 7.0 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current all-orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.7 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.6 percent including abnormal seasons and 12.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 Florida all-orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 5.25 million boxes (5.13 million, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0.05 million boxes to 12.7 million boxes including abnormal seasons, (0.70 to 12.7 million boxes excluding abnormal seasons).
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