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Weather disruptions drive fruit inflation in India

Fruit prices in India continued to rise through the first nine months of 2025, driven by weather disruptions and higher demand, while prices of vegetables and pulses declined.

Fruit inflation averaged 13.2% between January and September 2025, the highest in five years, according to an analysis by the Economic Times. The rate stood at 5.9% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2023. In contrast, vegetable prices fell by an average of 10.9% during the same period, compared with a 24.9% increase a year earlier. Overall retail inflation eased to 2.7%, down from 4.7% in 2024.

"Unlike vegetables and other food items, fruits are more susceptible to regional supply shocks, limited warehousing, and cold chain constraints," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). "Imports cannot easily offset these disruptions, leading to persistent inflation in popular fruits despite overall food price moderation," he added.

Fruits accounted for 3.85% of monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) in rural areas and 3.87% in urban areas in 2023–24. Bananas and apples recorded higher inflation than other fruits. Banana prices rose by 8.1% during January–September 2025, compared with 6.1% during the same period in 2024.

Bananas are cultivated across India, but recent flooding and heavy rains in key producing states such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra have disrupted supply. "This year's excessive rains have damaged the crop heavily," said BV Patil, president of the Banana Growers Association of India. He noted that although prices are high for consumers, farmers have received little return due to quality losses caused by rain damage.

In Bihar, one of India's major banana-producing states, many farmers have shifted to maize, which offers higher returns as a raw material for ethanol production.

Apple inflation averaged 12.2% in the first nine months of 2025, compared with 10% during the same period last year. "The supply side bottlenecks this year, caused by unprecedented floods in key producing states such as Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, have led to a rise in fruit inflation," said Jasrai.

Other fresh fruits, including litchi, pears, singara, and berries, recorded an average inflation of 13.9% during January–September 2025, compared with 6.5% a year earlier.

Source: The Economic Times

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