Mexico's potato production for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July–June) is forecast at 2.28 million metric tons (MMT), a 4% increase over the previous year. This rise is attributed to seasonal rains in mid-2024 that eased drought conditions in several key producing states. The total planted area is estimated at 63,000 hectares (ha), with Sonora, the top-producing state, accounting for 17,500 ha.
Despite the improvement in rainfall, Sonora and Sinaloa continue to experience severe drought. These conditions may reduce average tuber size and limit production growth. The sector also faces labor shortages, particularly in Sinaloa, where increased planting has created harvest delays and supply chain risks.
According to the National Confederation of Potato Producers, yields may exceed the two-million-ton average, raising concerns about market saturation and falling prices. In MY 2023/24, production reached 2.12 MMT, 7% higher year-on-year, with Sonora, Sinaloa, Veracruz, Puebla, and Estado de México contributing 76% of national output.
For MY 2025/26, domestic potato consumption is forecast at 2.78 MMT, up 3% from the previous year, driven by rising demand and awareness of U.S. fresh potatoes. Consumption includes 1.50 MMT for fresh table use, 0.59 MMT for food processing (mainly chips), and 0.37 MMT for frozen potatoes.
Imports of fresh potatoes are estimated at 0.225 MMT, a 5% increase, to meet growing demand. However, some local growers express concern over phytosanitary risks from U.S. imports and the impact on soil quality.
High food price inflation also affects consumption. In March 2025, Mexico's inflation rate rose to 3.80%, with food inflation climbing to 4.19%. Price volatility, especially at year-end, often shifts consumer preference to cheaper staples like corn and beans. Per capita fresh potato consumption has remained stable over the past decade at 14–16 kg (30–35 pounds) annually.
Stabilizing supply and improving affordability could help boost potato consumption in the long term, despite current economic and environmental challenges.
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