On May 13, the Almond Board of California released the April position report, providing an updated view of the almond market's supply and demand. Prior to this report, Expana's survey indicated an average shipment estimate of 106,594 metric tonnes (mt), with a range between 102,058 mt and 111,130 mt. The report confirmed that U.S. almond sellers shipped 109,316 mt in April, closely aligning with the April 2024 total. Shipments have matched Expana's pre-report survey range in five out of nine months this marketing year.
From August to April, 1,134,694 mt have been shipped, which is 1.4% below last year's 943,476 mt. Of the 109,316 mt shipped in April, 24,040 mt were domestic (-17.8% year-on-year), and 85,276 mt were international (+6.3% year-on-year), marking an April record for international shipments.
Top international destinations in April included India (20,819 mt), Spain (8,618 mt), UAE (6,713 mt), Netherlands (5,942 mt), Germany (5,126 mt), Italy (4,763 mt), and Japan (4,128 mt). Year-to-date, the European region is 1% behind last year, India is 4% lower, and China/Hong Kong is 51% down. In contrast, Southeast Asia and the Middle East are 30% and 13% ahead, respectively.
India's 20,819 mt in April reflects a 39% month-on-month increase. Despite being 4% behind last year's pace, U.S. sellers anticipate continued demand from India, especially with early Diwali celebrations and China's increased sourcing from Australia. The European Commission's announcement of upcoming tariff countermeasures on U.S. almonds by December 1 has prompted EU buyers to secure supply, resulting in 27,988 mt shipped to EU countries in April, a 27.5% month-on-month increase from March 2025.
New sales reached 87,367 mt, down 11.9% year-on-year and 11.5% month-on-month, yet still historically strong for April. Commitments were 238,139 mt, 5% less than the previous year, while uncommitted inventory rose 4.3% year-on-year to 263,575 mt.
On the supply side, 3,719 mt of new receipts brought the year-to-date total to 1,228,845 mt, with a few additional receipts expected for the remainder of the year. The USDA's Subjective Forecast estimates the final 2024/Almond crop at 1,238,951 mt.
For more information: Mintec/Expana