The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its 2024-2025 Florida all-orange production forecast, estimating a total of 11.6 million boxes, a slight increase of less than 1% from the previous forecast but a 36% decrease from last season's final production figure. The forecast is divided into 4.58 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (including early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.05 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The non-Valencia orange forecast has been adjusted slightly downward to 4.58 million boxes, with Navel oranges accounting for 100,000 boxes, approximately 2% of the total non-Valencia production. In contrast, the forecast for Valencia oranges has been adjusted slightly upward to 7.05 million boxes. According to the Row Count survey conducted on April 28-29, 2025, approximately 99% of the Valencia rows have been harvested. This adjustment is supported by a processor survey conducted on April 30, which assessed the volume of fruit already processed and the remaining volume to be processed.
For grapefruit, the USDA forecast remains at 1.30 million boxes, with 140,000 boxes of white grapefruit and 1.16 million boxes of red grapefruit. The grapefruit harvest is reported to be complete. The forecast for lemons remains unchanged at 600,000 boxes, while the forecast for tangerines and mandarins also remains steady at 400,000 boxes, encompassing all certified varieties.
The USDA report also includes a measure of forecast reliability known as the "Root Mean Square Error." For the May 1 Florida all-orange production forecast, this measure is 2.2%, meaning there is a two-thirds chance that the final production figure will not differ from the forecast by more than this margin. Excluding four abnormal hurricane seasons, the error margin is 2.3%. The forecast has been below the final estimate 13 times and above it 7 times in the past 20 years.
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 (407) 648 6013
Email: [email protected]
www.usda.gov