The containerized shipping sector is undergoing adjustments due to the United States' tariff policy. Drewry's Freight Loop analysis reports numerous blank sailings cancellations, particularly on Asia-U.S. routes. On the Eastbound Transpacific route, blank sailings rose from 9% in week 13 to 24% in week 18. This move by shipping lines aims to align supply with reduced demand from China.
MSC leads in cancellations with 30% blank sailings, followed by Premier Alliance at 25% and Ocean Alliance at 23%, while Gemini Alliance has a lower rate of 6%. Although cancellations slowed in May, Drewry anticipates further changes.
Route cancellations impact capacity. Drewry data shows a 22% capacity decrease on the Asia-USEC route in April and 18% in May. The Asia-USWC route saw a 20% reduction in April and 12% in May. Some lines are suspending services entirely; MSC cut 43,000 TEUs monthly to USWC, ZIM 20,000 TEUs, and TS Lines 8,000 TEUs. Premier Alliance postponed its "PS5" service launch indefinitely.
Drewry forecasts a 5%-8% capacity increase on Trans-Pacific routes in May, contingent on trade policy developments. A new wave of early cargo could arise before the tariff pause ends in July, potentially causing an early peak season. However, without trade negotiation progress, more cancellations and suspensions may occur, affecting maritime transport and global demand. This will influence whether recent rate increases persist or reverse amid ongoing supply adjustments.
Source: Blueberries Consulting