The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Brazilian orange juice concentrate has maintained its downward trajectory, marking a decrease for the ninth consecutive month. As of April, the price is set at $4,400 per metric ton (MT), reflecting a 32.3% drop year-over-year and a 15.4% decrease month-over-month. This follows a peak in August 2024, attributed to limited supply after a reduced 2024/25 MY harvest. Consequently, juice inventories remain low, with December 2024 stocks at 351,483 MT, showing a 24% decline year-over-year and 45.7% below the decade average.
Orange juice inventories have consistently decreased over the past decade, primarily due to citrus greening disease and erratic weather patterns, affecting production potential in Brazil and other regions. This structural reduction has influenced global demand, prompting juice manufacturers to shift toward alternative fruit bases, thus decreasing their reliance on orange juice. Over the past two and a half years, this transition has contributed to a steady decline in consumption, reinforcing the current market sentiment.
Producers in Egypt, South Africa, and Mexico have increased their contributions to the global market, adding pressure on prices. Despite ongoing uncertainty, market participants concur that sentiment remains weak, with some describing current demand as "dire".
Source: Mintec/Expana