May 2023 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade:

US agricultural exports in FY 2023 forecast down $3.5 billion

Horticultural products are unchanged from the February forecast at $39.0 billion. Whole and processed tree nuts are unchanged at $9.0 billion, with most shipments destined for the EU and Asia. Processed fruits and vegetables are unchanged at $7.3 billion on steady shipments to Canada. Fresh fruit and vegetables are unchanged at $7.1 billion on stable shipments to top markets Canada and Mexico.

Within horticultural products, seeking year-round supply of products produced competitively abroad remains an ongoing trend for consumers. To this end, the forecasts for fresh vegetables and processed fruits were adjusted upwards.

Fresh vegetables were revised up $400 million to $12.2 billion largely on strong imports from Mexico, though fresh vegetable and potato import values from Canada also increased in the first half of the fiscal year. Processed fruits are increased from the previous projection by $300 million, or 4 percent, to $8.6 billion. A considerable share of this growth is attributed to increased fruit juice imports, which were increased by $300 million, largely on strong imports from Brazil. This value increase in fruit juice is matched with a volume increase of 0.5 billion liters to 5.6 billion liters, which represents a 2-percent increase over FY 2022.

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