In 2021, Russia was the destination of almost 20% of the boxes of bananas that Ecuador exported. It is a significant market for the country. One of the main repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the reduction of Ecuador’s commercial dynamism with that part of the planet, says Cristian Carpio, an analyst and professor at the University of the Americas. The volume exported to Russia fell 2.19% between January and October of this year compared to the same period in 2021, while what was sent to Eastern Europe fell 53.5% (especially through Ukraine). The elimination of the 4% tariff that Russia imposes on Ecuadorian bananas prevented the fall from being even greater.
The main importers for Ecuadorian products are the US, Europe and China. If these countries enter an economic recession, the demand will actually drop. Also, much of the demand for Ecuadorian bananas was created by the Russian market. Currently these exports have dropped significantly. In the event that the conflict worsens and the recession in Russia is greater, those commercial spaces will disappear.