Exports of frozen fries from Belgium and the Netherlands are still increasing to the quarter ending September 2022, despite a slower August, September rebounded with the highest volume since 2017. Most of this volume is from the Netherlands.
In the last quarterly report, there was concern that the export price to New Zealand observed in graph above was relatively flat at around USD $850 per ton. Last two months show this has increased to around USD $970 per ton but this is still below export prices from Belgium and the Netherlands to other global markets at around USD $1,030 per ton.
Implications for the New Zealand industry
Loss of New Zealand market share. Last quarter it was estimated at 3 share points but with volumes still increasing it may be more. With export volumes still increasing it is looking increasingly likely. Again, the other factors mentioned in the last quarterly report would still be relevant:
Possible gross margin squeeze as the price from the EU is used as leverage to drive lower prices from the NZ processors of frozen fries. With the disproportionate export price to NZ versus all other global markets it would seem logical that the previously alleged dumping margins from Belgium and the Netherlands to New Zealand can only have increased.
New Zealand Frozen Potato Exports and Imports
Latest quarter exports to Asian markets looks to have been a struggle with declines versus year ago for the top 4. It would appear these Asian markets are becoming increasingly contested for market share with suppliers from India, China and the EU all increasing their market share latest quarter. Note commentary is based on volume except where stated.
Total export growth of -15% latest quarter and 8% annual growth by volume. Value growth is now ahead of volume growth at -6% on quarter and 10% annual indicates NZ frozen potato exporters are starting to pass on price increases to offset the significant input cost increases they will have experienced.
Source: potatoesnz.co.nz