Slight drop in South African grape estimate

The South African Table Grape Industry (SATI) has released its second official crop estimate for the 2015/2016 season. Volumes remain unchanged for all regions except the Orange River Valley, where the lighter bunch weight experienced in early varieties has lowered end of season volume expectations. The Orange River Valley now expects between 19.1 and 19.6 million cartons, which is 2% lower than the first estimate.

This brings the estimate for the total crop down marginally, to between 60.9 and 62.8 million cartons.

The table below compares this latest crop estimate with the first estimate (October 2015) and the actual volumes of the 3 preceding seasons.


Table: Crop Estimate in 4.5 kg carton equivalents (Millions)

The early harvest in the Orange River Valley combined with excellent weather gave rise to calls of a bumper crop. This second estimate however shows that this is not the case.

The unchanged estimates for the other production regions are ascribed to the very favourable weather conditions throughout the growing season, and the well-developed, healthy vineyards.

The Northern Provinces, having escaped a flash hail storm in the region, have progressed well with their crop and remain confident that their first estimate will be attained. The Olifants River Valley has started harvesting Flame, Early Sweet, Prime and Starlight and, together with the Berg River region, are on par with their initial estimated volumes. The crop in the Hex River Valley is developing very well, vineyards are healthy and the original estimate remains unchanged, according to SATGI.

The second estimate shows that the total volume of table grapes for the 2015/2016 season is marginally lower than the original estimate, with the lower volumes from the Orange River Valley bringing early season supply under some pressure. The latest estimate for the 2015/2016 season now reflects only a 2.5% to 5% growth compared with the previous season.

For more information:
Joseph Lombardt
Email: joseph@satgi.co.za

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