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Colin Galbraith - Moorehouse and Mohan
"We will see a total collapse of the onion market towards the end of the season"
"We are getting some very large onions coming in, the harvest in Western Europe is late and in areas where it has been particularly dry there will be less onions, but we are seeing some of the biggest onions that I've seen for a good few year."
The harvest is around a month later that normal, planting was also late for a lot of growers, according to Galbraith the large sizes may prove a problem for the retail sales.
"Predictions on yields and sizes may prove to be unfounded and hopes of a high market may not materialise as stores are full," explained Galbraith. "Possibly countries such as Poland or in Eastern Germany where it has been very dry, may have less onions."
He said this not a supply driven market at the moment, demand is low and growers at this time of year need to turn their onions into cash as they 'invest' a lot in the planting and growing of the crop and it can be up to a year before they see any returns and for some people this might too long according to Galbraith.
"However, that said, most growers these days have made big investments and they have the means to hold onions to hit the market at the right time either for retail contracts or to hit the spot market at the right price. But it appears to us that too many, including non European growers, are holding on too much and there will be no shortage in the market, but we will have to wait and see who is right."
"There is a very interesting period coming up, my bet would be that it will not as we expect, and we will see a total collapse of the market towards the end of the season, people have high aspirations for the start and will be hit by the reality further on in the season, normally the price will up at the end of the season but you might see a reverse this year when people start to realise that they have held on too long with too much," predicts Colin.
"I see a reversed season, it is not as short as has been predicted, these estimates or predictions were made without taking into consideration the late crop, the whole season has moved back a month, this is the situation across north west Europe, there will be less that normal, but last year was a bigger than normal so it will even out," concludes Galbraith.
For more information:
Moorehouse & Mohan
Tel: +44 1354 602860
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