Global production for 2025/26, covering September 2025 to August 2026, is forecast to decline 8 per cent to 1.1 million metric tons on an in-shell basis. Reductions in Turkey, Iran, and Syria are expected to more than offset gains in the United States.
With lower available supplies, world consumption is projected to fall 4 per cent to 1.1 million tons, while ending stocks are forecast to remain nearly flat. Global exports are expected to rise 6 per cent to a record 683,000 tons, driven mainly by higher shipments from the United States.
U.S. production is forecast to increase 43 per cent to a record 713,000 tons due to higher output during the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. The forecast is based on processors' producer delivery reports, while prior years are based on data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts report.
© USDA
U.S. consumption is projected to be 13 per cent higher at a record 225,000 tons, ranking second behind the EU. Exports are forecast to rebound more than 20 per cent from last year's off-year output to a near-record 425,000 tons. Reduced output in Turkey, Iran, and Syria is expected to support increased U.S. shipments to key markets in Asia and Europe. Ending stocks are forecast to more than double to 131,000 tons, following last year's inventory drawdown.
Iran production is forecast to decrease 11 per cent to 200,000 tons as high temperatures and drought stressed trees during flowering and bud formation. Irrigation interruptions caused by electricity shortages also contributed to lower yields. Exports are forecast to be nearly 20 per cent lower at 175,000 tons, with reduced shipments to China, Turkey, and India.
Turkey production is forecast to decline nearly 70 per cent to 120,000 tons due to the off-year in the alternate bearing cycle and frost and drought conditions in the southeastern production area, which accounts for approximately 80 per cent of output. Trade impact is expected to be limited, as most production is consumed domestically. Turkey has ranked third in both imports and exports over the past 5 years.
China's imports are forecast to decrease nearly 15 per cent to 125,000 tons, as shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year were weaker than in previous years. Around half of the total imports usually occur during this period.
EU production is projected to increase 8 per cent to 40,000 tons, with higher yields in Italy offsetting declines in Spain. Imports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 210,000 tons, with the United States supplying most of the volume.
The next release of this publication is scheduled for October 29, 2026.
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
Tony Halstead
USDA
Email: [email protected]
www.fas.usda.gov
