The main citrus belt regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais recorded rainfall last week, which helped induce blossoms in some orchards. Researchers at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) noted, however, that the amount and consistency of rainfall remain insufficient to offset the water deficit registered in most areas.
According to Cepea, this timing is crucial for determining the production potential of the next harvest. Adequate moisture is required not only to trigger flowering but also to ensure fruit set, which depends on stable climatic conditions in the weeks following bloom.
Weather forecasts indicate that no further significant rainfall is expected in the coming days for the citrus areas of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region. Instead, growers are facing warm conditions, which threaten the recently initiated flowering stage.
Industry agents consulted by Cepea have expressed concern that the combination of low rainfall and high daytime temperatures could impair fruit set, leading to a high drop rate of flowers. If confirmed, this would reduce the potential for the first flowering harvest next year. Cepea highlighted that a similar scenario already occurred in 2025, when the lack of consistent rainfall during the critical flowering period led to reduced setting and lower yields.
Growers in the citrus belt rely heavily on the regularity of rainfall at this stage to secure the development of the following season's crop. Any interruption in moisture availability during flowering can translate directly into lower production, affecting both fresh fruit supply and fruit destined for processing.
Cepea continues to monitor weather developments closely, stressing that the next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether current flowering can be sustained or whether losses will carry into the 2026 harvest.
Source: Abrafrutas
