The global banana market is navigating a mix of stability, supply constraints, and shifting demand in 2025. In Italy, prices remain stable with strong household penetration, though a seasonal dip is expected, and Ecuador remains the key supplier. The Netherlands is seeing tight supply and elevated prices driven by reduced production and logistical disruptions, yet summer demand remains strong.
In Spain, supply from the Canary Islands has dropped sharply due to adverse weather, causing prices to rise to €3.70–€5.00 per kilo. Retailers are turning to imports to fill the gap, though availability remains limited and costly.
Germany's supply is largely balanced with demand, although slight price declines are noted in cities like Munich and Berlin. In France, the market is easing after a six-month stretch of high prices caused by climate issues and shipping delays, with Guadeloupe and Martinique supplying 30% of the market.
In North America, supply is unusually limited due to past fertilization cuts and farm closures, pushing prices up while demand remains steady. Peru's organic banana output has dropped 40–45% due to water shortages, though prices are holding. Ecuador has boosted exports by over 3%, supported by favorable weather, strong global demand, and new technology.
In Colombia, production remained stable, with a slight decline in the first half of the year. Costa Rica focuses on improving productivity rather than expanding acreage. The Dominican Republic is recovering from pest-related quality issues and is now focused on maintaining organic standards and reliability. In South Africa, high volumes from Mozambique are keeping prices low despite lower local supply and the start of the citrus season.
Italy: Stable prices, seasonal dip ahead
A trader based in Northern Italy, who imports bananas and ripens them at his own facility, reports that since the beginning of the year, there have been no major changes in the market, with stable prices and moderate volumes. He expects consumption in Italy to slow down from now until September, coinciding with the back-to-school season, due to the wide availability of summer fruits.
The main origin of bananas remains Ecuador: in 2024, Ecuador exported 264 million boxes of bananas, of which 30% were shipped to Europe, 19% to Russia, and 13% to the Middle East.
Bananas continue to be a staple in Italian households, fulfilling consumer needs for wellness and convenience. However, the quantity purchased per shopping trip has slightly decreased over time, even though the amount spent per purchase has remained unchanged.
According to data from the YouGov Shopper Permanent Observatory, over 22.6 million households bought bananas at least once during the observation period (year ending March 2025), indicating that nearly 9 out of 10 families (86% market penetration) include this exotic fruit in their shopping baskets. This figure reflects a steady upward trend: during the same period in 2022, the number of buyers was just under 21 million.
While there is considerable overlap between purchases of organic and non-organic bananas, it is notable that organic bananas have increased their market penetration by nearly 10 percentage points in just two years, whereas non-organic bananas have remained stable over time.
Netherlands: Tight supply meets strong summer demand
Banana supplies are lower than in previous years, partly due to a shortage of reefer containers in South America. This has pushed prices above average. "On the open market, green bananas are priced around €16–17, which is quite high," says a Dutch importer. "Countries like Guatemala and Costa Rica have significantly reduced production. There are also several global factors at play, such as strikes in Panama, which now mainly ships its fruit to the United States. Delays and congestion at the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp are causing irregular banana deliveries. Usually, banana sales dip during the summer months, but this season is bucking the trend with strong global demand. So, a good banana summer may still be ahead."
This week's other Dutch banana news: Chiquita, in collaboration with retailer Albert Heijn, has launched the Chiquita Green 5-Pack. With both the Chiquita Yellow 5-Pack and the Green 5-Pack now available side by side, consumers can choose their purchase based on when they plan to eat the bananas—either immediately or later in the week.
Spain: Canary Islands banana shortage drives up prices
Banana supply from the Canary Islands remains unusually low for this time of year, with retail prices ranging between €3.70 and €5.00 per kilo. Production began to decline in mid-March due to adverse weather, creating a significant gap in the market that is expected to ease by summer. In the meantime, Spanish retailers are compensating by increasing imports, although imported bananas are considered a different category.
"Normally in May, around 7,500 tonnes of Canary Island bananas enter the mainland each week, but we are currently below 5,000 tonnes—something that doesn't typically happen, not even in August when banana sales drop," a Spanish trader explains. "Since the volcanic eruption on La Palma in late 2021, banana production has faced repeated disruptions. Last year and the year before ended with overproduction, but this year, a colder and wetter winter has delayed the harvest, causing a much longer period of shortage compared to the brief spike in prices seen last year."
As a result, demand for Canary Island bananas significantly exceeds supply. "The availability of summer fruit is still low and relatively expensive, so alternatives are limited," the trader notes. "Retail chains in Spain are trying to offset the shortage by increasing banana imports, though global banana production has also been affected recently by weather conditions and logistical challenges."
The trader expects the market to stabilize in the summer, particularly with the drop in demand during school holidays. "From September, the balance between supply and demand may return to normal. Production is expected to rise by then, and the back-to-school period will be a key indicator of whether supply is sufficient."
Germany: Supply aligns with demand; minor dips in key cities
Availability was sufficiently harmonized with accommodation options, resulting in prices generally remaining at previous levels. Only in some locations, such as Munich and Berlin, was demand somewhat more limited. Due to good supply, valuations in these areas trended slightly downward.
Meanwhile, the price level for both first and other brands is only slightly lower than during the same period last year. In the Austrian wholesale trade, prices were recently at a level of €1.33–€1.39 per kg.
France: Prices ease after supply delays
The banana market in France, as in the rest of Europe, has undergone significant changes in recent months. Over the past six months, the sector faced considerable challenges, including reduced supply due to climatic issues and frequent shipping delays. These disruptions led to elevated banana prices, ranging from €16 to €20 per box, which remained stable from November to May. Currently, the market has eased slightly, with prices now between €12 and €15 per box. On the French market, bananas from Guadeloupe and Martinique account for an estimated 30% share, alongside imports from American and African origins.
North America: Fertilizer fallout and farm closures drive pricing
Banana supply is unusually limited due to reduced productivity on many farms in Central America. Nearly four years ago, numerous producers ceased fertilizing their crops due to rising fertilization costs—a development now being felt more than 20 months later.
Compounding the issue is the condition of farms in countries such as Ecuador, Costa Rica, Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. Many of these farms are shutting down, partly due to the long-term effects of the fertilizer shortage, which can create a downward spiral for some banana companies. As a result, consolidation is taking place, with companies seizing the opportunity to acquire farms and invest in restoring them to acceptable productivity levels.
Currently, banana prices are significantly higher than usual, and a summer of elevated prices is expected. Interestingly, the increase in pricing has not noticeably impacted demand, which remains steady.
Looking ahead, supply is expected to recover. Growers in Mexico and Guatemala estimate that fruit volumes will begin to increase within the next 10–13 weeks.
Peru: Prices stable despite 40–45% drop in production
Organic banana production is facing a 40–45% decline due to poor water management in the Chira Valley. Despite this, prices remain stable at €12.90 (Fair Trade) and €12.86 (SPP – minimum guaranteed). Exports are directed toward Europe and Asia.
There are ongoing sustainability advancements, including the use of solar panels and plastic recycling. However, water scarcity and high logistical costs continue to pose serious challenges. The sector is seeking stronger private representation to improve production, plant health, and trade relations.
Ecuador: Strong demand, favorable weather, and tech boost output
Exports grew by 3.21% in the first four months of 2025, reaching 137.12 million boxes. Favorable weather conditions boosted productivity. The spot price stood at €9.46 per box, while the official minimum was €6.72.
Demand increased due to challenges in other producing countries. Markets such as Russia, China, and East Asia were further consolidated.
Port security remains a priority, with advanced technological measures in place. Drones and biotechnological solutions are also being implemented to improve plant health. Annual growth of 3% to 5% is expected.
Colombia: Steady output with logistical challenges
Production remained stable, with a slight decline in the first half of the year, and improved performance is anticipated in the second half. The focus remains on organic bananas certified for sustainability, marketed under annual contracts that emphasize volume and price stability. The main challenges relate to international logistics, particularly delays at European ports. Market conditions are generally stable, and the country continues to serve as a reliable supplier within the Andean region.
Costa Rica: Yield focus continues despite weather and disease threats
The focus is on increasing production without expanding cultivated areas. Production fell by 1.1% in 2024, and another 5% drop is expected in 2025 due to irregular rainfall. Exports are mainly directed to the European Union (47%) and the U.S. (33%).
The price in Europe is around €16.69 per box, higher than the previous year. Despite sustainability commitments, the prices paid to producers still do not reflect actual production costs. The threat of Fusarium TR4 remains a concern.
Dominican Republic: Pest recovery and certification efforts support reliability
The country faced quality and pest issues, including a hard-to-control mite, which led several exporters to exit the market. However, fruit quality has improved, and some players continue to invest in the origin.
The focus is on maintaining stability and service within the organic banana segment, with strict certifications. The priority is not growth, but preserving strong trade relationships and improving the country's reputation as a reliable supplier.
South Africa: High volumes pressure prices despite lower supply
Mozambican banana producers are currently the dominant players in the South African market. Although banana volumes on the municipal markets are lower than in the past two years, market agents report that prices remain under pressure.
The average banana price is approximately €0.37 per kilogram, with an average price of €6.40 for an 18 kg carton of large bananas and €7.36 for extra-large bananas (18 kg) on the Tshwane market.
Demand on the municipal markets is influenced by the onset of the citrus season, according to a banana farmer. However, a retail buyer notes that, from their perspective, citrus has had no negative impact on banana sales.
"Last year, prices were better because Mozambique had been affected by natural disasters and political turmoil, but this year there are lots of bananas and prices are very weak," says a South African banana grower.
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