Each year, the USDA surveys California almond growers to gauge prior yields and current expectations. These findings contribute to the USDA's initial Subjective Forecast. In 2025, the forecast predicts 2,010 pounds per acre across 1.39 million acres, totaling 2.8 billion pounds. The 2024 figures were 1,980 pounds per acre from 1.38 million acres, resulting in 2.73 billion pounds.
The 2024 Subjective Forecast initially estimated 3 billion pounds, but the Objective Measurement in July revised this to 2.8 billion pounds, with the final yield at 2.73 billion pounds. Sellers express caution, with some stating, "The 2024 crop looked to be in better condition at this stage than the 2025 crop does currently."
Buyers, on the other hand, believe supply constraints may ease, expecting prices to drop. Market activity for the 2025/26 crop remains limited, with standard 5% almonds last assessed at $3.22/lb on May 8.
Source: Mintec/Expana