Florida is experiencing more hot days and will continue to do so. So concludes a newly published study, Exceedance probability model for predicting the frequency of summer hot day patterns and temperature variability in Florida, that appeared last month in Science Direct.
The study surveyed 28 meteorological stations in Florida between 1959 to 2022 and determined some key findings. "On average, the number of extremely hot days–defined statistically as days above 91 degrees Fahrenheit–is going to increase by 2.5 days/decade on average across the state," says Golmar Golmohammadi, who led the study.
The heat is also expected to last longer and become more intense–so as the average temperature goes up, there's less variability in daily temperatures during the summer. "Extreme heat isn't just occasional anymore. It's sticking around for longer stretches, making it more dangerous for people, animals, and crops," says Golmohammadi.
Small change with big results
Small temperature changes will also have big impacts on the number of hot days. Based on the research, a two-degree increase in the summer temperature can result in up to 30 more hot days in some of the stations studied.
Golmohammadi also uncovered regional differences in the state. "Northern and Central Florida are seeing the fastest increase in average temperature. The Central, Inland, and Western part of the state are experiencing sharper rises in the number of hot days," she adds.
Golmohammadi says extreme heat in Florida isn't just occasional anymore. Photos courtesy UF/IFAS photography.
So what does this mean for Florida growers? No doubt the growing environment is changing and will continue to, and growers will increasingly need to plan for more frequent and prolonged extreme heat in the future. "More hot days and hot days lasting longer can seriously affect crop health, yields and quality of the crop," she says.
Planning ahead in order
To continue growing, she says more planning is needed in Florida's agriculture. "Being proactive now will pay off in resilience down the road," she says, adding that the data has only one key input–the average daily maximum temperature–so this model can be adopted to local conditions and help with decision-making where data is limited.
"Growers may need to rethink what they grow, when they plant, and how they manage crops. Crop selection may need to shift based on the area, and some heat-sensitive crops may not perform well with 20 or 30 extra hot days per summer," she says. "The need for irrigation will likely increase because as the temperature rises, evaporation rates will go higher. That puts additional pressure on already limited water resources."
However, she says the study is about Florida's weather and resilience. "Growers can make more climate-smart decisions based on these types of studies," she says.
For more information:
Brad Buck
UF/IFAS
Tel: +1 (656) 347-8422
[email protected]
www.ifas.ufl.edu