The USDA's latest long-term agricultural projections provide a detailed outlook on the fresh produce sector through 2034, highlighting key trends in production, trade, and pricing. As global economic conditions stabilize following recent volatility, U.S. fruit and vegetable production is expected to see moderate growth, with shifting trade dynamics and policy decisions shaping the market. While overall crop acreage is projected to decline, consumer demand for fresh produce remains strong, emphasizing the need for efficient supply chains and sustainable production practices.
Trade policies and market conditions will play a crucial role in fresh produce availability and pricing. U.S. agricultural exports are projected to decline in 2025 before gradually increasing, with fresh fruit and vegetable exports remaining a key component of trade growth. Meanwhile, international trade restrictions, tariff adjustments, and supply chain disruptions continue to influence global produce markets. Countries like South Korea and the Philippines have implemented trade measures to stabilize domestic prices, while China and India focus on increasing self-sufficiency in staple crops, potentially affecting U.S. fresh produce exports.
Climate conditions, environmental policies, and technological advancements will also shape the fresh produce sector over the next decade. Droughts, extreme weather, and shifting land use patterns could impact production levels, while advancements in sustainable farming practices and controlled environment agriculture may help offset supply challenges. Investments in domestic food security initiatives and global trade agreements will be key factors determining the competitiveness of U.S. fresh produce in international markets. With evolving consumer preferences and policy shifts, the fresh produce industry must adapt to maintain growth and stability in the years ahead.
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