In the market year (MY) 2024/25, total citrus production in Mexico is expected up by 4 percent versus the previous year, driven primarily by the increase in lime production. Fresh orange production is projected up only marginally due to unstable environmental conditions such as prolonged drought, high temperatures, and erratic rainfall in the main producing regions. Post's forecasting for MY 2024/25 reflects producer expectations of improved environmental conditions that will aid in tree recovery and produce higher quality fruit. Orange juice production will increase following several years of lower production due to fruit quality issues. More favorable conditions helped to obtain better quality fruit through the latter half of MY 2023/24 and producer sentiment and market demand remain positive for MY 2024/25. Exports of fresh citrus fruit are projected to remain stable for fresh oranges and grow moderately for fresh lemons/limes.
MY 2024/2025 total production in Mexico of fresh oranges, lemons/limes, and grapefruit is expected up by 4 percent versus the previous year. However, Mexican citrus production is still challenged by adverse environmental effects, such as prolonged drought and high temperatures that affected many of Mexico's main producing regions. It is expected that as orange trees recover, larger fruit with higher juice content will be harvested in MY 2024/25. It is also estimated that this will translate to increased production of fresh juice concentrate.
Mexico's total domestic consumption is up 5 percent across fresh citrus driven by a 7 percent increase in lemons/limes fresh consumption. However, the economic environment remains a key limiting factor in consumer purchasing behavior. While included in Mexico's basic food basket, or "canasta basica", citrus covered in this paper and other fruit products are generally not considered 'staples' by medium and low-income households. High pricing in the sector also limits consumption growth.
Export demand remains stable with an important increase for lemons/limes exports and marginal for oranges. The overall export of fresh citrus is projected to be higher than the previous MY due to more available lemons/limes for export. Mexico's imports of fresh citrus fruit are minimal and largely unchanged year to year.
In 2023, according to Mexico's Agri-food and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), the total planted area for citrus fruits covered in this report (oranges, lemons/limes, and grapefruit) surpassed 598,300 hectares (ha), a 2 percent increase versus the previous year. The planted area for orange production represents 59.1 percent of the total planted area, followed by lemons with 37.2 percent and grapefruit with 3.7 percent. This ratio has remained steady over the last 10 years.
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