Brazil, recognized as the top global supplier of orange juice, is concluding its second successive harvest with a downturn in export volumes. The first half of the 2024/25 season witnessed a 19.7% reduction in shipments, with a forecast of continued sectoral strain due to limited supply and diminishing demand.
Exports from July to December 2024 amounted to 430,078 tons of orange juice (FCOJ equivalent to 66 Brix), a decrease from 535,604 tons in the corresponding period of the prior cycle, as per CitrusBR, the exporters association of the sector, utilizing government data.
Despite the volume decrease, export revenue experienced a 42.66% increase to $1.9 billion, propelled by elevated juice prices. Ibiapaba Netto, CitrusBR's executive director, highlighted the sector's challenges, stating, "The sector has endured five cycles of small and medium harvests, and according to international benchmarks, unprecedented price increases are making demand contraction unavoidable."
Netto remarked on the historically low stocks at the season's onset, a result of the previous cycle's poor harvest. As of June 30, 2024, juice stocks at CitrusBR member companies stood at 116,710 tons, marking the third-lowest record.
The current harvest is estimated at 223.14 million boxes by Fundecitrus, marking a 27.4% decline from the 2023/24 cycle. This projection indicates a lower juice availability this season, with expectations of further reduced exports in the season's latter half.
Netto anticipates the year's exports to conclude below previous levels, acknowledging the additional market challenges posed by declining demand. Structural changes in importing markets, such as demographic shifts in Europe and increased competition from other beverages, contribute to the demand decrease. However, in the United States, reliance on Brazilian orange juice is predicted to rise due to the impact of hurricanes and citrus greening disease on Florida's orange groves.
Andrés Padilla, a Rabobank Brazil analyst, noted that international orange juice prices have stabilized following last year's sharp increases. The future of prices hinges on updates regarding Brazil's 2025/26 harvest, with potential fluctuations influenced by summer rain outcomes and climate-related grove damages.
Source: Valor International